Serious question: does The Clarity Act clarify anything?

More to the point, will it -- in the long run -- help avoid Québec separation?

Everyone would reflexively answer 'yes', I'm sure. But look a little deeper.

We know The Clarity Act gives the federal government and the provinces veto power over any referendum result. Either through declaring a majority vote 'unclear', or by rejecting terms of separation, either level of government could theoretically cancel a province's referendum.

But, in all honesty, that will never happen. Occupying powers lose out everytime, and if we refused to recognize a province's clear vote to separate, we would effectively become an occupying power.

The less controversial aspect of the Clarity is requiring a clear referendum question -- not a clear (super) majority -- for secession.

In reality, this provision of The Clarity Act, combined with a federal/provincial veto, may well be the savior of separatist cause.

How?

Since time immemorial -- well, the 60s -- diehard separatists have tried to convince Québecois voters that a 'yes' was not a vote for separation, but a vote for negotiation -- "sovereignty association".

We'd likely all agree that their clear intent was always nothing short of complete sovereignty, but we'd also probably agree that they've really been able to convinced anyone otherwise.

The Clarity Act, for the first time, gives that argument credibility. Separatists will now be able claim, with some justification, that the federal government has forced them to ask for outright separation -- 'they won't even negotiated without it!'.

Imagine that your one of those moderate, francophone Québecers. You really want "sovereignty association", but have never voted 'yes' before, because you knew it would lead separation.

Now there's a law on the books that garauntees you'll never be able to get the deal you want without a vote to separate and supposedly gives the federal govenrment the power prevent PQists from ever actually separating.

Does that make you more likely, or less likely, to believe that the PQists could use a referendum to force complete separation? Does that make you more likely, or less likely, to vote 'yes'?

Sure, those moderate francophone voters may wake up the next morning realizing that a 'yes' majority has changed everything, that nothing can stop the diehards now. But by then it'll be too late.

Is Clarity worth that risk?