I Heart SES

Published on May 31, 2004 By IanGillespie In Politics

I don't understand what's going on with the wild Liberal/Conservative swings, but they've now got the NDP at a record high:

As of May 30th:

Party	Support
Liberal	36%
Conservative	26%
NDP	20%
Bloc	13%
Green	5%

As of May 29th:

Party	Support
Liberal	34%
Conservative	31%
NDP	19%
Bloc	12%
Green	3%

As of May 28th:

Party	Support
Liberal	34%
Conservative	34%
NDP	18%
Bloc	11%
Green	3%

Comments

macphluff

on Jun 01, 2004

The map is not the territory.

-6078

on Jun 01, 2004

When you say that's a record high for the NDP, you mean a record within the scope of polls conducted by SES, is that right? They've beaten 20% in at least one federal election (though not by much), and I seem to remember they were frequently in the mid 20s in published polls during the 70s and 80s.

My theory about the big Liberal/Conservative swings is this: there are a lot of ex-Tories out there who spent the Chretien years wishing Martin was PM instead of Chretien and grumbling about how those crackpot Reformers had messed it all up by splitting the vote. Now the Liberals have Martin as leader and the Tories have a crackpot(?) Reformer. What to do!? Subtle shadings in the nightly news could swing them either way. Aren't undecideds high this time around?

IanGillespie

on Jun 01, 2004

I meant compared to past election results. The NDP's best share of the popular vote was 20% under Ed Broadbent in 1988.

Undecideds are high this time around.

-6078

on Jun 01, 2004

Ok, thanks. Clearer now

I hope the tone of that question didn't sound too confrontational. It wasn't meant to be.

This certainly is turning out to be an interesting election when you think that last fall a Liberal majority was a foregone conclusion.

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