Politics from North of the 49th Parallel
Published on June 17, 2004 By IanGillespie In Politics

Stephen Harper's claim that his party could now win a majority government is not just lousy politics, but falt wrong.

The Conservatives and Liberals remain deadlocked at 32% in polls.

When the Liberals fell below 40% it was called 'minority territory', but now -- while still eight percent lower -- we're to believe that the Conservatives are on the cusp of majority?

Look closer:

There are 75 seats in Québec -- and no indication that any of them will go Conservative.

Seat projections estimate that 27 seats will go to the NDP -- and that may prove low.

To usher in a Tory majority, therefore, the Liberals would have to win fewer than 52 of the remaining 206 seats outside Québec.

Even with an inefficient vote, concentrated in many ridings that will ultimately be taken by the Bloc or the NDP, the Liberals are still unlikely to fair so poorly in such a close election.

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