Politics from North of the 49th Parallel
Debate Strategy for Everybody's Second Choice
Published on February 22, 2004 By IanGillespie In Politics

The Conservative Party's two leading candidates have clear cases to be made in today's debate.

Stephen Harper must make the case that, with election actually in play, the party must select an experienced leader that can be Prime Minister.

Belinda Stronach must make the case that, with election actually in play, the party must select a moderate leader that can attract moderate voters.

Things are more difficult for Tony Clement. As 'everybody's second choice' Clement must try to cull enough votes from each of the other candidates to beat one of them. Otherwise, Clement won't get the chance to be anybody's second choice. A few questions...

Question #1: Which candidate can Clement actually hope to beat?

According to The Globe and Mail's most recent poll that would be Belinda. This may be deceptive though: Belinda has heavy support in Québec and the Atlantic where their are fewer Conservative members. Since the vote in each riding is weighted equally, these votes count more heavily than those in the West -- so Stronach can punch above her weight.

Still, Harper's support is far better established and less likely to fade. If Tony wants to win, he's got to beat Belinda (figuratively, of course).

Question #2: How does Clement win on the second ballot?

Simple. To win on the second ballot, Clement has got to garner almost all of the support of whichever candidate he knocks off the first ballot. In other words, Clement must defeat Stronach without sending her supporters over to Harper.

Question #3: Tony who?

Obviously, Clement's biggest problem is that he's gotten virtually no attention during the leadership campaign. To be considered as a real contender, Clement has to get that big media moment which gets replayed like it were Howard Dean in Iowa (but in a good way).

So, deliver the big media moment, in an exhange with Belinda Stronach, that doesn't offend her supporters. That shouldn't be so hard!?

Here's the thing though. Everyone will expect Harper to be going after Stronach on policy experience, making her look as though she doesn't understand what she talking about. If Clement does this it will be predictable and only serve to help Harper, not himself.

Clement ought to distinguish himself by going after Stronach on what is ostensibly her strong suit: electability. But, how, you ask?

The third rail of Canadian politics: two-tier healthcare. Belinda Stronach has, remarkably, an even worse position on this than Stockwell Day. She has willing embraced the 'Alberta model' and overtly speculated about privately paid for medical treatment.

She's stepped on the rail, she's already dead but nobody's noticed yet. Tony Clement ought to take advantage of that. Let's see if he does.


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